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Sigma Fund SQ 2017-6

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打着解决IPO堰塞湖的旗号而狂发新股,显然是极其扯淡的理论,2015年IPO暂停前排队数量是594家,截至昨日数据IPO排队数是585家。有如此暴利谁不想上市?

on Jun 25, 2017

the situation is clear.

sell, run.

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New blog post

on Jun 24, 2017

一场超级贸易战正山雨欲来。最先扣动扳机的是美国总统特朗普,对象是冰冷的钢铁。上月从七国集团(G7)西西里岛峰会回国时,特朗普已在推特上公开威胁将在6月份采取行动,英国《金融时报》预测说,这可能是特朗普采取的“迄今他做出的最为重大的保护主义举措”。

  特朗普最新的筹码,就是基于1962年《贸易扩展法》(Trade Expansion Act)第232章的“232调查”。根据这项国内法,美国相关产业的生产,需满足美国国防发展的需求;如果外国商品对这些美国产业带来冲击,政府有权进行干预。

  这就意味着,如果美国认为外国商品威胁到美国相关产业,如果这个产业又与国防有着千丝万缕的联系,美国总统就有权越过其他贸易救济调查,单方面启动“进口调整”。

  这种贸易保护主义的做法,干净利落,一剑封喉。

  美国盯上的先是进口钢铁,然后是铝制品。根据美国商务部长罗斯披露的信息,美国商务部在今年4月份已经对进口钢铁和铝产品展开相关调查,相关结果将在6月底公布。届时如果商务部向特朗普提交的报告,确定进口威胁到美国国家安全,特朗普将有90天时间来决定是否动用232条款强制授权,即对外国相关产品征收惩罚性关税甚至拒绝进口。

  上一次美国启用“232调查”是在1982年,当时美国就借口国家安全,对利比亚石油实施进口限制。自1995年WTO成立后,美国政府仅启动过两次“232调查”,分别是在1999年与2001年,但考虑到对方报复等一系列不良后果,美国最终没敢轻举妄动。

  但特朗普上台后,“232调查”开始摆上台面。按照罗斯的指控,之所以对进口钢铁和铝制品启动“232调查”,是因为在进口冲击下,美国仅有的几家工厂将难以为继,而这些厂家又生产着美国军舰、坦克所需要的钢铁和铝制品。

  这正是这些美国企业一直以来的主张。以钢铁行业为例,相关企业频繁对外国商品尤其是中国商品发起反倾销反补贴诉讼,现在又扯上国家安全这面大旗,认为一旦遭到冲击,就无法提供国防需要的钢材,也无法为美国军队供应能源提供管道。

  一句话,如果这些企业无法生存,美国国家安全也就面临威胁。但这样一个战时条款,美国却运用在和平时期,无疑将对国际贸易造成沉重打击。

  其带来的一个必然结果,就是惨烈的贸易战。美国对中国钢铁和铝制品进口开刀,损害的是中国正常贸易的利益,来而不往非礼也,不排除中国对美国农产品等展开报复性制裁。

  而且,这还不是中美贸易的问题。据报道,北约的欧洲成员国正在对美国进行游说,认为美国拟议的这种贸易保护举措,虽然明显针对的是中国,但难免损害生产钢铁的美国的北约盟友。德国和荷兰的军方官员已将忧虑传递给美国国防部长马蒂斯,马蒂斯则向特朗普进行了传达。

  对欧盟来说,美国不仁,休怪欧盟不义,一旦美国真对欧洲钢铁采取制裁性措施,在内部压力下,欧盟的报复也是显而易见的。这将加剧目前因北约军费、气候变化等问题正变得紧张的美欧关系。

  因此,对于特朗普拟议中的这项保护主义举措,美国相关企业以及全国对外贸易理事会、美国汽车政策委员会、美国设备制造商协会等纷纷表示反对,认为这样做的话,不仅损害美国广大钢铁消费行业的利益,削弱美国制造业的国际竞争力,更会招致其他国家的贸易报复。

  更糟糕的是,这种被称为“核强度的贸易保护主义”,无疑将对WTO规则构成严峻挑战。必须看到,作为世界上最大经济体,美国的这种示范效应将导致更多国家追随效仿,甚至有可能造成整个WTO体系坍塌。

  美国商务部长罗斯也承认,特朗普如果因此采取强制措施,必定在国内或WTO遭遇法律诉讼挑战,特朗普政府对此十分清楚。但“明知山有虎,还偏向虎山行”,更暴露出特朗普的盘算:将难题抛给WTO。如果WTO认可美国做法,那自然符合美国利益;如果WTO裁定美国失败,那更给美国一个理由,既然可以退出TPP,可以退出《巴黎协定》,也未必不能退出WTO。

  《金融时报》甚至引述一些贸易专家的话说,在特朗普如何毁灭自二战结束以来一直是全球贸易体系基石的规则时,这将是他们的起点之一。

  考虑到西方主流媒体对特朗普的敌视态度,希望这只是危言耸听。但暴风雨即将袭来,相关国家应该有所准备。

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a family tradition

on Jun 22, 2017
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on Jun 22, 2017

  6月1日,海南矿业(601969,股吧)透露,复星集团、海南矿业、招金矿业,三家出资4.87亿美元,加上4亿美元贷款,以8.87亿美元(约合人民币60.32亿元)的价格共同认购俄罗斯最大黄金生产商Polyus公司(极地黄金公司)10%的股权。

  6月14日,复星集团又宣布,已通过其子公司复星黄金控股公司竞购俄罗斯百年珠宝品牌Fabergé的母公司、在伦敦上市的英国矿业公司Gemfields ,报价2.25亿英镑(约合19.45亿元人民币)。

Polyus Gold International is the largest gold producer in Russia and one of the top 10 gold miners globally by ounces produced (1.5 million ounces of gold, or about 40 ton production in 2011). As of the third quarter of 2014, the company was the world's 8th-largest producer of gold.

it is about the same size of shan dong huang jin, which has a valuation of 600 Yi Yuan, similar to the price paid for the russian shit.

some key questions you should bother to ask -

why invest rus? there are other options such as aus, but these shit choose the equal shit, the reason i think is simple as that, shit to shit, so they can hide their shit.

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券商股表现属于板块启动,虽然尾盘被砸下,但是,预计券商股将成为后期稳定市场和带动指数的中坚力量,它们的行情还非常值得期待

on Jun 22, 2017

this could well be the case. this is the view of some market participants, i tend to agree.

our strategy should be wait till it rallies, then sell into the rally, but should buy back when it falls from the rally. technical indicators junkyard index should be followed closely.

  • trade short term on junkyard index
  • sell into the rally, and then buy back after it falls back
  • overall try to maintain the minimum holding if it keeps rising
  • ultimately, the shit dog fang will have to strike down again at some point; major buying back price should be 12.20 area. rebound target 13.00;
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on Jun 22, 2017

On Wednesday, MSCI announced its intention to include Chinese A-shares (shares traded on the mainland) into its MSCI Emerging Market index.

Credit Suisse expects this to greatly benefit two Australian companies: Macquarie Group, long active in the Asian region, and Computershare, which is a registry provider to many Chinese stocks.

Negative implications

But overall, the implications for Australian shares were negative, as the market's centre of gravity (as determined by the market capitalisation of various equity markets) shifted north and away from Australia.

"Under our current assumptions, we expect China and Hong Kong will make up half of the Asia ex-Japan equity benchmark by 2030. This is from 20 per cent now," Mr Tevfik wrote.

"To accommodate the new giant in our neighbourhood, Australia's weight in the region will fall from 12 per cent to 6 per cent.

"As the boffins at the index providers raise the weight of China (and by default lower the weight of Australia), global passive funds will be obliged to slavishly follow their masters. They will be net sellers of Australia and net buyers of China."

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the significance of the aufarm project - great for one, great for all. this should be considered a cause.

on Jun 22, 2017

remember people gather by nature. same nature congregates same people, with same value.

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周三尾盘上证50指数的集体拉升,让指数翻红后上行,周四市场延续了这样的走势,并一举突破了60日线,不过有个细节值得注意,那就是今天指数在11点,即指数市场加速冲高3180点之际,也是个股跳水最明显的阶段,两市涨跌比降至1:2;午盘指数继续冲高,但涨跌比始终没有改善,直到尾盘集体大跳水。

on Jun 22, 2017

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实干误已,炒房兴邦

on Jun 22, 2017

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come of the final collapse? cocks are so jittery and affraid of the selling off by others, that is sure sign of the forthcoming collapse

on Jun 22, 2017

深交所公告称,公共传媒出现关于万达电影的信息,可能对公司股票交易价格产生较大影响,公司股票6月22日13:00起临时停牌,待公司通过指定媒体披露澄清公告后复牌,请投资者密切关注。注:稍前万达集团发布声明称,网上有关银行抛售万达债券一事属于谣言,建行等行从未下发此类通知,集团经营一切良好。

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the rational of the aufarm project and why now

on Jun 22, 2017

the timing is perfect, because right now there will be huge demand and need for reallocation of assets, for more serious risk analysis, for a foothold for generations to come.

given this background, aufarm provides the solid, if not the only, solution to people.

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there has never been a time so easy to trade as time now

on Jun 22, 2017

first, get a portfolio of solid stocks; by solid you have to know what i mean;

then, sell at whatever price will be fine, because later, you will always have chance to buy back at cheaper price, guaranteeed.

trading for profit is never as easy as now.

fundamentally, there is no value in all the shits. they are just chips for trading, not for long term value or holding.

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dog fang and what we are sure about it

on Jun 22, 2017

it will drift down, coupled with sudden collapse from time to time, that is for sure;
it can float up some time, that is a great time to sell.
no matter at what price you sell, you surely can buy back later at cheaper price, that is the iron law.

so, sell first, then buy back. that is the rule of the game.

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zen jewel comment thursday

on Jun 22, 2017

who is buying in the afternoon? why? that is the question.

  • gold price remains firm and stable, traded in the neutral and concensus range; so the rally is not gold spurred;
  • no news in the public
  • seems more the stock market dapan related, and if this, it will return to the lower drifting course later

good time to sell. sold 2000 shares at 10.25
apply 5% buy back rule.

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space farm, that is the next venture

on Jun 22, 2017

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